Slow Week, Quiet Data But Tariff Effects Are Starting to Show
It’s a slow week for economic headlines, not much on the calendar that usually moves markets. The two main things to watch are Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes (from back in June) and Thursday’s jobless claims report. That’s pretty much it for big macro updates.
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But even in a quiet week, there are still signs of movement under the surface.
Today’s small business sentiment report came in a little softer. Owners are turning more cautious about sales and hiring. That’s not great but not shocking either, considering all the tariff noise lately. What stood out more was that more small business owners are planning to raise prices. That’s a subtle sign that inflation pressures might not be done yet.
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The reason? Tariffs. A lot of companies, especially smaller ones, are getting squeezed by higher import costs. And instead of eating those costs, they’re starting to pass them along to customers. It’s early, but this could show up more clearly in inflation data over the next few months.
That said, it’s not all doom and gloom. Slower growth? Probably. A recession? Not likely, at least not from this alone. It’s more about businesses adjusting and adapting, not hitting the brakes completely.
👀 What to Watch This Week:
- Wednesday: Fed minutes — any new clues on the timing of rate cuts?
- Thursday: Jobless claims — do they keep climbing or level off?
- Are price hikes by small businesses showing up in inflation readings soon?
- Do markets get twitchy with so little data to digest?
It’s a light week but sometimes that’s when the signals are easier to spot.