Trump Extends the Clock, But the Bill Just Got Bigger

Trade stuff popped back up again today — and not in a good way.

Trump announced a fresh set of tariffs this morning. Here’s what’s happening: if countries like Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan don’t strike trade deals soon, the U.S. will slap a 25% tax on the stuff we import from them. South Africa’s facing 30%. And countries that are cozying up to this group called BRICS, that’s Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa will get hit with an extra 10% on top. Basically, if you’re leaning away from U.S. trade policy, you’re getting taxed.

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The deadline for deals just got pushed from July 9 to August 1. So there’s a bit more breathing room but also more time for things to go sideways.

The market wasn’t expecting these new tariffs to be this steep. And that’s the problem. Bigger tariffs = more expensive imports = higher inflation. And right now, we’re just starting to see inflation calm down. This throws a wrench into that.

What’s tricky is the Fed has been eyeing interest rate cuts later this year. But if these tariffs stick and especially if they trigger retaliation, inflation might creep back up again, which could delay those cuts. So this trade move isn’t just political drama. It could spill over into prices, growth, and policy decisions.

No big market crash today, but it definitely stirred the pot. Most people didn’t price this in.

👀 What to Watch:

Will any of these countries strike a deal before August 1?
Does China respond with its own tariffs or restrictions?
Do inflation expectations start to rise again?
How does the Fed talk about this in upcoming speeches?

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